Callout scorecard

How the trade callouts posted by public Telegram channels linked to accounts flagged for funneling traders into Telegram finished against the real market tape. Three parts: what each called-out option contract did in the minutes and hours after the post (the main view), the same option callouts held to expiry (a secondary view), and forex, gold and index signals scored on whether the first target or the stop traded first. Every figure shows its sample size and a 95% range, and every assumption is written out below.

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How the calls traded after they were posted

These channels call quick scalps, so the useful question is what the option contract itself did after the call, not where it finished at expiry. Each called-out contract is scored from real 5-minute trade bars of that contract. Calls posted during the regular session (9:30 to 16:00 ET) get the 30 minutes of bars after the post. Daily callouts (posted before the open, after the close or on a weekend) get the whole next regular session. The fill price is the open of the first 5-minute bar at or after the post (or the session open for daily callouts), not the price the channel quoted.

Exit rules: target first or stop first

Does a slower fill change it?

Could the quoted entry be filled?

How much to trust these ranges

Coverage: from posts to scored

By channel (30-minute window, in-session calls)

By ticker (15 most scored)

By hour of the post (ET)

Hour of the post in New York time, in-session calls only. The 9 o'clock row starts at the 9:30 open.

Method and limitations

Limitations

Other headline numbers

Read each card with its sample size and range. A short window and a few active channels mean these are descriptions of this sample, not settled rates.

Quoted result versus the same trade held to expiry

If you had bought and just held to expiry

A secondary view and a poor guide for scalps: these channels call quick trades, so holding every contract to expiry is not what their followers are told to do. Each option callout is scored as if held until expiry: intrinsic value at the expiry close of the underlying minus the entry premium the channel quoted. A win means intrinsic value finished above the quoted entry. Channels usually post an early exit instead, so this is a stress test of the callouts, not anyone's account record.

Coverage: from posts to scored

By days to expiry

By ticker (15 most scored)

By channel

Quoted closes are the results the channel itself announced (deduplicated), not verified, and they cover only trades the channel chose to announce. Channels with n under 5 scored are hidden by default; they remain in the data file.

Options methodology and assumptions

Forex, gold and index signals: TP1 first, SL first

Signals with an entry, a stop and at least one target (for example a gold sell with a zone, SL and TP1 to TP3) are scored on 5-minute price bars after the post. TP1 first means the first target traded before the stop within 24 hours of the fill; SL first means the stop traded first. Results are in R, where 1R is the distance from the fill to the stop.

Pooled, market-fill variant

By instrument

By channel

By week

Touch-fill variant (reported separately, never pooled)

How sensitive is this to the basis estimate?

FX methodology and assumptions

Content timeline: forex and gold versus stock and option posts

Some channels post forex, gold or index signals and stock or option callouts at different times. This shows, per channel, the date range of each kind among posts the parser recognised. Posts whose exact timestamp is shared by 6 or more posts in one channel are bulk dumps (a history replay or backfill): their original posting dates are unknown, so they are counted separately and not used to date a switch.

All channels

Every scored forex, gold and index signal

The original post text is shown on every row. Levels are as parsed and can be wrong; check them against the text. Outcome codes: tp1, tp2 and so on mean that target traded before the stop; sl means the stop traded first.

Data