{
 "generated_at": "2026-10-20T17:37:56Z",
 "credit": "https://telegramscammers.com",
 "disclaimer": "Analysis of public posts. Channels and accounts here are flagged for investigation, not a finding of fraud. Flag list curated by https://telegramscammers.com. Statistical description of what the tape shows under stated assumptions, with sample sizes and 95% ranges; not advice.",
 "source": "AfterMath analysis of public Telegram channel posts against the real tape (Yahoo public bars); passive and read-only",
 "methodology": "https://ah.mphinance.com/scorecard",
 "methodology_doc": "docs/FUNNEL.md",
 "conventions": "rates are fractions 0..1; *_ci are Wilson 95% intervals [low, high]; option returns are percent; FX results are in R (stop distance = 1R)",
 "small_sample_rule": "channel or instrument rows with n under 5 are flagged small and hidden by default on the page; they remain in this file",
 "options": {
  "available": true,
  "pooled": {
   "n_scored": 2149,
   "win_rate": 0.1764,
   "win_ci": [
    0.1608,
    0.193
   ],
   "median_return": -100.0,
   "mean_return": -9.7627,
   "worthless_share": 0.7636,
   "worthless_ci": [
    0.7452,
    0.7811
   ],
   "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4328,
   "max_return": 3164.54,
   "mean_return_excl_top5": -15.8914,
   "n_distinct_contracts": 1858,
   "n_contract_days": 2043,
   "contract_days": {
    "win_rate": 0.1747,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1589,
     0.1918
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -8.8909,
    "worthless_share": 0.766,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7472,
     0.7839
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4278,
    "max_return": 3164.54,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -15.3362
   },
   "distinct_contracts": {
    "win_rate": 0.1679,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1516,
     0.1856
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -16.5699,
    "worthless_share": 0.7723,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7527,
     0.7908
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4139,
    "max_return": 3164.54,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -23.4086
   },
   "window_start": "2026-05-26",
   "window_end": "2026-10-13",
   "return_unit": "percent of quoted entry premium, held to expiry; -100 = expired worthless",
   "win_definition": "intrinsic value at expiry above the quoted entry premium",
   "hold_to_expiry_assumptions": [
    "No option price history exists in the public data used here. Each option callout is scored by holding it to expiry: intrinsic value at the expiry-date close of the underlying (Yahoo public daily bars) minus the entry premium the channel itself quoted. A 'win' means intrinsic value at expiry was above the quoted entry; -100% means it expired worthless.",
    "Channels usually post an early exit, not a hold to expiry. Held-to-expiry is a different trade from the one a channel may have closed, so it is a stress test of the callouts, not a record of anyone's P&L.",
    "Entry premiums are the channels' own quoted fills and cannot be verified. Slippage, spreads and fees are ignored, which flatters the callouts.",
    "A missing expiry is treated as unknown, not as same-day, unless the parser saw an explicit 0DTE tag. Records without an expiry or an entry price are not scored.",
    "Reposts of the same trade are collapsed (one row per channel, ticker, side, strike, expiry and post day); 'distinct contracts' is keyed on ticker, side, strike and expiry alone, so it also collapses the same contract posted on different days or by several channels; 'contract-days' keeps one row per contract per post day.",
    "Posts whose timestamp is shared by 6 or more posts in one channel (bulk history dumps), implausible entries and far-dated expiries are excluded rather than scored.",
    "Impossible quotes are excluded: if even the best print of the post day (day low for calls, day high for puts) leaves the contract's intrinsic value more than 1.5 times the quoted premium plus 0.5 above that premium, the quote cannot be a real fill for that strike (a mis-parsed strike, a wrong ticker or a replayed old post), so it is not scored. The count is in the coverage funnel.",
    "The mean return is dominated by a few multi-baggers, so the median and the share expired worthless describe the typical call better; the file also gives the mean without the 5 largest returns.",
    "Pending options (expiry not yet passed) are not scored. The window is short and a few trending days move the totals."
   ]
  },
  "coverage_funnel": [
   {
    "stage": "option open callouts parsed",
    "n": 7304,
    "kind": "start"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: same trade reposted in the same channel",
    "flag": "duplicate_echo",
    "n": 2599,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: same trade already posted by another channel",
    "flag": "cross_channel_echo",
    "n": 1049,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: parsed expiry is before the post date",
    "flag": "expiry_before_post",
    "n": 25,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: implausible entry price",
    "flag": "entry_implausible",
    "n": 32,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: bulk history dump (post date not trusted)",
    "flag": "posted_date_suspect",
    "n": 45,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: expiry far in the future",
    "flag": "expiry_far",
    "n": 39,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "excluded: quoted premium below intrinsic value at post time (impossible fill)",
    "flag": "entry_below_intrinsic",
    "n": 23,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "unknown expiry (not assumed same-day)",
    "n": 649,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "other unscorable (missing entry price, strike or side, no price data)",
    "n": 325,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "merged same-channel same-day repeats",
    "n": 138,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "pending (expiry not yet passed)",
    "n": 230,
    "kind": "removed"
   },
   {
    "stage": "scored at expiry",
    "n": 2149,
    "kind": "end"
   },
   {
    "stage": "scored but return not computable (entry price zero)",
    "n": 1,
    "kind": "note"
   }
  ],
  "by_dte_bucket": [
   {
    "bucket": "0 days (same day)",
    "n_scored": 1009,
    "win_rate": 0.1992,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1757,
     0.225
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -7.9,
    "worthless_share": 0.7205,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.692,
     0.7473
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5114,
    "max_return": 3164.54,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -19.3152
   },
   {
    "bucket": "1 to 2 days",
    "n_scored": 399,
    "win_rate": 0.203,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1665,
     0.2452
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 6.3429,
    "worthless_share": 0.7393,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.6941,
     0.78
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4386,
    "max_return": 2452.2,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -18.6206
   },
   {
    "bucket": "3 to 7 days",
    "n_scored": 397,
    "win_rate": 0.1637,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1306,
     0.2033
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 2.7129,
    "worthless_share": 0.7909,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7482,
     0.8281
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3955,
    "max_return": 2452.2,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -19.9894
   },
   {
    "bucket": "8 to 30 days",
    "n_scored": 322,
    "win_rate": 0.0994,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0713,
     0.1369
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -44.7726,
    "worthless_share": 0.8789,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.8387,
     0.9101
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.2391,
    "max_return": 1569.44,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -63.6256
   },
   {
    "bucket": "31 days or more",
    "n_scored": 22,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0,
     0.1487
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -100.0,
    "worthless_share": 1.0,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.8513,
     1.0
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.2273,
    "max_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -100.0
   }
  ],
  "by_ticker": [
   {
    "ticker": "SPX",
    "n_scored": 377,
    "win_rate": 0.1459,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1138,
     0.1851
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -23.5609,
    "worthless_share": 0.8064,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7635,
     0.8431
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3979,
    "max_return": 2452.2,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -45.6082
   },
   {
    "ticker": "QQQ",
    "n_scored": 239,
    "win_rate": 0.2552,
    "win_ci": [
     0.2041,
     0.3141
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -2.8595,
    "worthless_share": 0.6402,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5775,
     0.6984
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5941,
    "max_return": 1354.16,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -25.3768
   },
   {
    "ticker": "SPY",
    "n_scored": 176,
    "win_rate": 0.2784,
    "win_ci": [
     0.2175,
     0.3488
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 6.3672,
    "worthless_share": 0.6023,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5285,
     0.6717
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6534,
    "max_return": 1095.65,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -18.3395
   },
   {
    "ticker": "TSLA",
    "n_scored": 166,
    "win_rate": 0.0964,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0602,
     0.1508
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -54.5428,
    "worthless_share": 0.8554,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7939,
     0.9009
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4157,
    "max_return": 886.87,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -80.1001
   },
   {
    "ticker": "MU",
    "n_scored": 86,
    "win_rate": 0.0581,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0251,
     0.129
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -55.2203,
    "worthless_share": 0.9186,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.8414,
     0.96
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.1628,
    "max_return": 1465.1,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -98.6751
   },
   {
    "ticker": "NVDA",
    "n_scored": 65,
    "win_rate": 0.2154,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1329,
     0.3297
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -10.3009,
    "worthless_share": 0.6308,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5092,
     0.7377
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6154,
    "max_return": 1880.0,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -72.1328
   },
   {
    "ticker": "META",
    "n_scored": 62,
    "win_rate": 0.1613,
    "win_ci": [
     0.09,
     0.2721
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 76.7644,
    "worthless_share": 0.8226,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7096,
     0.8979
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3548,
    "max_return": 1950.42,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -30.0363
   },
   {
    "ticker": "AAPL",
    "n_scored": 55,
    "win_rate": 0.2182,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1295,
     0.3437
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 21.1085,
    "worthless_share": 0.6727,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.541,
     0.7819
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5455,
    "max_return": 847.48,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -43.0012
   },
   {
    "ticker": "AMZN",
    "n_scored": 49,
    "win_rate": 0.2245,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1302,
     0.3588
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 27.922,
    "worthless_share": 0.7755,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.6412,
     0.8698
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3673,
    "max_return": 1236.0,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -46.9111
   },
   {
    "ticker": "IWM",
    "n_scored": 47,
    "win_rate": 0.1489,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0741,
     0.2769
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -51.4398,
    "worthless_share": 0.7021,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5602,
     0.8135
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5957,
    "max_return": 441.38,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -86.3057
   },
   {
    "ticker": "SNDK",
    "n_scored": 47,
    "win_rate": 0.1277,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0598,
     0.2517
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 88.8404,
    "worthless_share": 0.8723,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7483,
     0.9402
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.2979,
    "max_return": 3164.54,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -90.1826
   },
   {
    "ticker": "GOOGL",
    "n_scored": 38,
    "win_rate": 0.1053,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0417,
     0.2413
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -66.7387,
    "worthless_share": 0.8684,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7267,
     0.9425
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3684,
    "max_return": 487.58,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -100.0
   },
   {
    "ticker": "AMD",
    "n_scored": 32,
    "win_rate": 0.4062,
    "win_ci": [
     0.2552,
     0.5774
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 135.2312,
    "worthless_share": 0.5938,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.4226,
     0.7448
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4062,
    "max_return": 898.59,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": 9.4941
   },
   {
    "ticker": "MSFT",
    "n_scored": 31,
    "win_rate": 0.2258,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1139,
     0.3981
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 15.7474,
    "worthless_share": 0.6774,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5014,
     0.8143
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4839,
    "max_return": 862.32,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -75.1865
   },
   {
    "ticker": "PLTR",
    "n_scored": 25,
    "win_rate": 0.32,
    "win_ci": [
     0.172,
     0.5159
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 133.9772,
    "worthless_share": 0.68,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.4841,
     0.828
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.44,
    "max_return": 1569.44,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -60.597
   }
  ],
  "by_channel": [
   {
    "channel": "t.me/crestedgeroom",
    "n_scored": 378,
    "win_rate": 0.2037,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1662,
     0.2472
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -19.1108,
    "worthless_share": 0.7275,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.6805,
     0.7699
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4868,
    "max_return": 898.59,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -31.091,
    "quoted_closes": 454,
    "quoted_mean_result": 80.5489,
    "quoted_median_result": 39.55,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/bzjzhzhzuzzu",
    "n_scored": 328,
    "win_rate": 0.1159,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0856,
     0.155
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -19.6158,
    "worthless_share": 0.8628,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.8213,
     0.8959
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3201,
    "max_return": 2452.2,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -44.0152,
    "quoted_closes": 12,
    "quoted_mean_result": 361.3333,
    "quoted_median_result": 151.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/moonwalkertrades2",
    "n_scored": 323,
    "win_rate": 0.1455,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1112,
     0.1881
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 9.0209,
    "worthless_share": 0.8235,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.7782,
     0.8612
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3529,
    "max_return": 2755.45,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -24.8914,
    "quoted_closes": 163,
    "quoted_mean_result": 158.7221,
    "quoted_median_result": 53.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/bob_signalsfreealert",
    "n_scored": 220,
    "win_rate": 0.1909,
    "win_ci": [
     0.1445,
     0.248
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -23.7047,
    "worthless_share": 0.7455,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.684,
     0.7985
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5591,
    "max_return": 1363.06,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -47.06,
    "quoted_closes": 317,
    "quoted_mean_result": 138.3494,
    "quoted_median_result": 63.79,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/blockwave10",
    "n_scored": 176,
    "win_rate": 0.2898,
    "win_ci": [
     0.2278,
     0.3607
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 29.1953,
    "worthless_share": 0.6534,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5805,
     0.7198
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6023,
    "max_return": 1847.79,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -5.5076,
    "quoted_closes": 119,
    "quoted_mean_result": 84.7034,
    "quoted_median_result": 42.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/de_gainers_free_circle",
    "n_scored": 122,
    "win_rate": 0.2459,
    "win_ci": [
     0.178,
     0.3293
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 52.2707,
    "worthless_share": 0.6148,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.5262,
     0.6964
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5574,
    "max_return": 2266.67,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -9.9181,
    "quoted_closes": 387,
    "quoted_mean_result": 114.3582,
    "quoted_median_result": 60.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/queen_free_entries",
    "n_scored": 103,
    "win_rate": 0.1456,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0903,
     0.2265
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -12.1967,
    "worthless_share": 0.767,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.6767,
     0.8381
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3689,
    "max_return": 1880.0,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -64.5218,
    "quoted_closes": 91,
    "quoted_mean_result": 87.3187,
    "quoted_median_result": 50.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/ajfreealart32",
    "n_scored": 72,
    "win_rate": 0.1528,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0875,
     0.2532
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -17.2142,
    "worthless_share": 0.8056,
    "worthless_ci": [
     0.6997,
     0.8805
    ],
    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3472,
    "max_return": 3164.54,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -82.053,
    "quoted_closes": 113,
    "quoted_mean_result": 105.9106,
    "quoted_median_result": 53.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/novatrade02",
    "n_scored": 67,
    "win_rate": 0.0597,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0235,
     0.1437
    ],
    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -82.503,
    "worthless_share": 0.9104,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "quoted_median_result": 240.0,
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   },
   {
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    "n_scored": 54,
    "win_rate": 0.1296,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -30.0231,
    "worthless_share": 0.7593,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3704,
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    "mean_return_excl_top5": -90.0514,
    "quoted_closes": 115,
    "quoted_mean_result": 35.4348,
    "quoted_median_result": 26.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/apextraderkoryphae",
    "n_scored": 50,
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    "win_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.38,
    "max_return": 862.32,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -73.8731,
    "quoted_closes": 15,
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   },
   {
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    "win_rate": 0.1875,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -52.4471,
    "worthless_share": 0.7708,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3958,
    "max_return": 236.99,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -80.7326,
    "quoted_closes": 256,
    "quoted_mean_result": 120.0629,
    "quoted_median_result": 50.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/mrquickerfreealert",
    "n_scored": 47,
    "win_rate": 0.1489,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
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    "worthless_share": 0.7447,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5106,
    "max_return": 957.89,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -81.505,
    "quoted_closes": 362,
    "quoted_mean_result": 98.1573,
    "quoted_median_result": 60.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/mrfortunefreeflow",
    "n_scored": 41,
    "win_rate": 0.2683,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -19.9998,
    "worthless_share": 0.5854,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5122,
    "max_return": 756.86,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -66.3042,
    "quoted_closes": 70,
    "quoted_mean_result": 70.2459,
    "quoted_median_result": 44.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/spymaster8",
    "n_scored": 29,
    "win_rate": 0.1379,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -44.1576,
    "worthless_share": 0.7931,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.3103,
    "max_return": 603.47,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": -99.6971,
    "quoted_closes": 26,
    "quoted_mean_result": 692.1923,
    "quoted_median_result": 424.5,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/tradevisionst",
    "n_scored": 21,
    "win_rate": 0.1429,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -4.9252,
    "worthless_share": 0.7143,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.4762,
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    "mean_return_excl_top5": -96.3137,
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    "quoted_mean_result": 24.0,
    "quoted_median_result": 24.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/precisionpipsclub01",
    "n_scored": 13,
    "win_rate": 0.3077,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": 34.1646,
    "worthless_share": 0.5385,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.8462,
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    "mean_return_excl_top5": -94.775,
    "quoted_closes": 8,
    "quoted_mean_result": 751.0,
    "quoted_median_result": 180.0,
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   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/vanguardstockupdates68",
    "n_scored": 10,
    "win_rate": 0.1,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -78.351,
    "worthless_share": 0.9,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6,
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    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
    "quoted_closes": 2,
    "quoted_mean_result": 45.0,
    "quoted_median_result": 45.0,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/axisalgorithmictrade",
    "n_scored": 8,
    "win_rate": 0.25,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -23.1538,
    "worthless_share": 0.75,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5,
    "max_return": 365.88,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
    "quoted_closes": 34,
    "quoted_mean_result": 141.3735,
    "quoted_median_result": 36.6,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/gpt2136",
    "n_scored": 8,
    "win_rate": 0.125,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -70.2887,
    "worthless_share": 0.75,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.25,
    "max_return": 47.69,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
    "quoted_closes": 22,
    "quoted_mean_result": 359.2273,
    "quoted_median_result": 97.5,
    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/vertexpublic",
    "n_scored": 7,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -100.0,
    "worthless_share": 1.0,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.2857,
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   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/equityapexvault2",
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    "win_rate": 0.2,
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -66.138,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6,
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    "quoted_median_result": 41.45,
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   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/mavericksroom",
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    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -54.476,
    "worthless_share": 0.8,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.2,
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    "quoted_closes": 1,
    "quoted_mean_result": 26.0,
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    "small": false
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/blue_falcon_capital",
    "n_scored": 4,
    "win_rate": 0.75,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": 97.34,
    "mean_return": 70.155,
    "worthless_share": 0.25,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 1.0,
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    "quoted_mean_result": 238.75,
    "quoted_median_result": 109.0,
    "small": true
   },
   {
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    "n_scored": 4,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -80.4175,
    "worthless_share": 0.75,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.75,
    "max_return": -21.67,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
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    "quoted_mean_result": null,
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    "small": true
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/trexfreecircle",
    "n_scored": 3,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "win_ci": [
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -88.27,
    "worthless_share": 0.6667,
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.6667,
    "max_return": -64.81,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
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    "quoted_mean_result": 86.1111,
    "quoted_median_result": 77.0,
    "small": true
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/alphasyndicate11",
    "n_scored": 2,
    "win_rate": 0.5,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0945,
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    "median_return": 596.875,
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    "worthless_share": 0.5,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.5,
    "max_return": 1293.75,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
    "quoted_closes": 51,
    "quoted_mean_result": 424.1765,
    "quoted_median_result": 160.0,
    "small": true
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/stockwise01",
    "n_scored": 1,
    "win_rate": 0.0,
    "win_ci": [
     0.0,
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    "median_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return": -100.0,
    "worthless_share": 1.0,
    "worthless_ci": [
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    "touched_breakeven_optimistic_share": 0.0,
    "max_return": -100.0,
    "mean_return_excl_top5": null,
    "quoted_closes": 4,
    "quoted_mean_result": 61.75,
    "quoted_median_result": 62.5,
    "small": true
   }
  ],
  "paired": {
   "n_pairs": 741,
   "n_contracts": 482,
   "quoted_win_rate": 0.9258,
   "quoted_win_ci": [
    0.9046,
    0.9425
   ],
   "quoted_median": 42.0,
   "quoted_mean": 71.1031,
   "held_win_rate": 0.2699,
   "held_win_ci": [
    0.2392,
    0.303
   ],
   "held_median": -100.0,
   "held_mean": 40.3856,
   "quoted_winners": 686,
   "quoted_winners_that_would_have_lost": 494,
   "quoted_winners_that_would_have_lost_ci": [
    0.6854,
    0.7524
   ],
   "link_rule": "exact contract match between the close post and an earlier scored open from the same channel",
   "all_links": {
    "n_pairs": 932,
    "n_contracts": 564,
    "quoted_win_rate": 0.9335,
    "quoted_win_ci": [
     0.9156,
     0.9478
    ],
    "quoted_median": 43.0,
    "quoted_mean": 84.8701,
    "held_win_rate": 0.2672,
    "held_win_ci": [
     0.2398,
     0.2965
    ],
    "held_median": -100.0,
    "held_mean": 39.3163,
    "quoted_winners": 870,
    "quoted_winners_that_would_have_lost": 630,
    "quoted_winners_that_would_have_lost_ci": [
     0.6935,
     0.7528
    ],
    "link_rule": "contract match plus the looser same-ticker same-day match"
   },
   "caveat": "A channel's close is an early exit; the held column is the same contract held to expiry. A quoted win that would have expired worthless is a different trade, not a false statement. The comparison shows how much of a quoted result depends on the exit being at the right moment. Quoted results are the channel's own, unverified claims and only trades the channel chose to announce; only closes whose paired open was scored appear. Pairs depend on the parser's open link."
  }
 },
 "fx": {
  "available": true,
  "pooled": {
   "n_signals_scored": 146,
   "market_fill_n": 118,
   "touch_fill_n": 28,
   "window_start": "2026-08-18",
   "window_end": "2026-10-13",
   "outcome_definitions": {
    "tp1_hit_rate": "TP1 traded before the stop within 24 hours of the fill (share of market-fill signals)",
    "sl_first_rate": "the stop traded before TP1 within 24 hours (share of market-fill signals)",
    "tp2plus_rate": "TP2 traded before the stop, among signals that list two or more targets",
    "mean_r_tp1": "mean result in R (stop distance = 1R) if every trade exits at TP1 or the stop; unresolved marked to the last close",
    "mean_r_last": "mean result in R if every trade holds for the last target or the stop",
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": "1 / (1 + average winning TP1 R): the TP1 hit rate needed to break even before costs, for resolved trades"
   },
   "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5847,
   "tp1_ci": [
    0.4945,
    0.6696
   ],
   "sl_first_rate": 0.3814,
   "sl_first_ci": [
    0.2988,
    0.4714
   ],
   "unresolved_rate": 0.0339,
   "tp2plus_rate": 0.3761,
   "tp2plus_n": 41,
   "tp2plus_denominator": 109,
   "tp2plus_ci": [
    0.2909,
    0.4698
   ],
   "mean_r_tp1": -0.0187,
   "mean_r_last": -0.0596,
   "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8706,
   "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.6237,
   "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6159,
   "median_minutes_to_first_event": 32.6,
   "ambiguous_same_bar": 0,
   "variant": "market-fill",
   "concentration": {
    "n": 118,
    "n_channels": 1,
    "top_channel": "t.me/stockmarketvault",
    "top_channel_n": 118,
    "top_instrument": "XAUUSD",
    "top_instrument_n": 97,
    "n_same_day_setup_groups": 73,
    "window_days": 57,
    "mean_r_tp1_se": 0.088,
    "mean_r_tp1_range95": [
     -0.191,
     0.154
    ],
    "mean_r_sign_established": false,
    "caveat": "118 of 118 market-fill signals come from one channel (t.me/stockmarketvault) and 97 are XAUUSD; they fall in 73 same-day channel/instrument/side groups, so they are not 118 independent observations and the ranges understate the uncertainty. The window is 57 days."
   }
  },
  "by_instrument": [
   {
    "instrument": "XAUUSD",
    "touch_n": 26,
    "small": false,
    "n": 97,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.6186,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.5191,
     0.709
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.3814,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.291,
     0.4809
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.4022,
    "tp2plus_n": 37,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 92,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     0.3078,
     0.5043
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": 0.0199,
    "mean_r_last": -0.0066,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8804,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.6489,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6065,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 31.0,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "US30",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": false,
    "n": 6,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.1876,
     0.8124
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.5,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.1876,
     0.8124
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.1667,
    "tp2plus_n": 1,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 6,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     0.0301,
     0.5635
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.4188,
    "mean_r_last": -1.0,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.2939,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.1624,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.8603,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 44.3,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:USDCAD",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 3,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.3333,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.0615,
     0.7923
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.6667,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.2077,
     0.9385
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.3333,
    "tp2plus_n": 1,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 3,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     0.0615,
     0.7923
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.608,
    "mean_r_last": -0.4613,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 1.2627,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.176,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.8503,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 143.7,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "NAS100",
    "touch_n": 1,
    "small": true,
    "n": 2,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.0945,
     0.9055
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.5,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.0945,
     0.9055
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.5,
    "tp2plus_n": 1,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 2,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     0.0945,
     0.9055
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.404,
    "mean_r_last": -0.5362,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.1928,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.1921,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.8389,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 24.35,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "AVAXUSD",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.0,
     0.7935
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 1.0,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.2065,
     1.0
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": null,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 0,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     null,
     null
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -1.0,
    "mean_r_last": -1.0,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 2.0,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 359.6,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:AUDNZD",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 1.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.2065,
     1.0
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.0,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.0,
     0.7935
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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    "mean_r_tp1": 0.1375,
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    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
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    "small": true,
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     0.7935
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    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.7576,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": null,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:EURCHF",
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    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 1.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
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     1.0
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    "sl_first_ci": [
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     0.7935
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    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
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    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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    "mean_r_tp1": 0.6056,
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    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.6056,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.6056,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6228,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 1425.0,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:EURJPY",
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    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
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    "sl_first_ci": [
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    "unresolved_rate": 1.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.0,
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    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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    "mean_r_tp1": -0.1886,
    "mean_r_last": -0.1886,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.5341,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": null,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:EURNZD",
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    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
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     0.7935
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    "sl_first_ci": [
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    "unresolved_rate": 1.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": null,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 0,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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     null
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": 0.49,
    "mean_r_last": 0.49,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 2.0,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": null,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:GBPJPY",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 1.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.2065,
     1.0
    ],
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    "sl_first_ci": [
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     0.7935
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 1.0,
    "tp2plus_n": 1,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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     1.0
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": 0.5,
    "mean_r_last": 2.0,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.5,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.5,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6667,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 14.7,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:NZDUSD",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.0,
     0.7935
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.0,
    "sl_first_ci": [
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     0.7935
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 1.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": null,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 0,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     null,
     null
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.6013,
    "mean_r_last": -0.6013,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 2.0,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": null,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "FX:USDJPY",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 1.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.2065,
     1.0
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.0,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.0,
     0.7935
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": null,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 0,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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     null
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": 2.0,
    "mean_r_last": 2.0,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 2.0,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 2.0,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.3333,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 75.5,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "SPX500",
    "touch_n": 0,
    "small": true,
    "n": 1,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
    "tp1_ci": [
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     0.7935
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 1.0,
    "sl_first_ci": [
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     1.0
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.0,
    "tp2plus_n": 0,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 1,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -1.0,
    "mean_r_last": -1.0,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8571,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 102.0,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "instrument": "BTCUSD",
    "touch_n": 1,
    "small": true,
    "n": 0
   }
  ],
  "by_channel": [
   {
    "channel": "t.me/stockmarketvault",
    "touch_n": 27,
    "small": false,
    "n": 118,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5847,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.4945,
     0.6696
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.3814,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.2988,
     0.4714
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0339,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.3761,
    "tp2plus_n": 41,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 109,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
     0.2909,
     0.4698
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.0187,
    "mean_r_last": -0.0596,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8706,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.6237,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6159,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 32.6,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   {
    "channel": "t.me/dennis1btc1",
    "touch_n": 1,
    "small": true,
    "n": 0
   }
  ],
  "weekly_by_channel": [
   {
    "channel": "t.me/stockmarketvault",
    "n_scored": 145,
    "weeks": [
     {
      "week_start": "2026-06-15",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 16,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-06-22",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 11,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-06-29",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 4,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-07-06",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 3,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-07-13",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 5,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-07-20",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 18,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-07-27",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 16,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-08-03",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 7,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-08-10",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 29,
      "market_n": 0,
      "stats": null,
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-08-17",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 19,
      "market_n": 9,
      "stats": {
       "n": 9,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.7778,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.4526,
        0.9368
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.2222,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.0632,
        0.5474
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.4444,
       "tp2plus_n": 4,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 9,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.1888,
        0.7334
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": 0.1417,
       "mean_r_last": -0.4401,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.5263,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.468,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6812,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 31.8,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 3,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.3333
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-08-24",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 30,
      "market_n": 18,
      "stats": {
       "n": 18,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.6667,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.4375,
        0.8372
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.2778,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.125,
        0.5087
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0556,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.4444,
       "tp2plus_n": 8,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 18,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.2456,
        0.6628
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": 0.3137,
       "mean_r_last": 0.5639,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 1.0401,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.9029,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.5255,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 18.1,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 2,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.0
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-08-31",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 26,
      "market_n": 10,
      "stats": {
       "n": 10,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.3127,
        0.8318
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.3,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.1078,
        0.6032
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.1,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.4444,
       "tp2plus_n": 4,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 9,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.1888,
        0.7334
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -0.1817,
       "mean_r_last": -0.2125,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.7209,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.2973,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.7708,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 15.7,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 4,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-09-07",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 50,
      "market_n": 22,
      "stats": {
       "n": 22,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5455,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.3466,
        0.7308
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.3636,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.1973,
        0.5705
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0909,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.4444,
       "tp2plus_n": 8,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 18,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.2456,
        0.6628
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": 0.1044,
       "mean_r_last": 0.1615,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8441,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.812,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.5519,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 42.95,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 5,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.0
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-09-14",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 38,
      "market_n": 15,
      "stats": {
       "n": 15,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.6,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.3575,
        0.8018
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.4,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.1982,
        0.6425
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.3333,
       "tp2plus_n": 4,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 12,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.1381,
        0.6094
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -0.0814,
       "mean_r_last": -0.1205,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.8194,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.531,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6532,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 35.2,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 2,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-09-21",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 33,
      "market_n": 17,
      "stats": {
       "n": 17,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5294,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.3096,
        0.7384
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.4706,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.2616,
        0.6904
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.2353,
       "tp2plus_n": 4,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 17,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.0955,
        0.4726
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -0.0979,
       "mean_r_last": -0.297,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 1.2777,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.704,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.5869,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 38.8,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 4,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-09-28",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 25,
      "market_n": 12,
      "stats": {
       "n": 12,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.6667,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.3906,
        0.8619
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.3333,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.1381,
        0.6094
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.5,
       "tp2plus_n": 6,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 12,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.2538,
        0.7462
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -0.1104,
       "mean_r_last": -0.0889,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.5891,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.3344,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.7494,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 15.3,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 1,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.0
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-10-05",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 31,
      "market_n": 12,
      "stats": {
       "n": 12,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.2538,
        0.7462
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 0.5,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.2538,
        0.7462
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.2727,
       "tp2plus_n": 3,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 11,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.0975,
        0.5657
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -0.1996,
       "mean_r_last": -0.3103,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.9512,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.6008,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.6247,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 56.95,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 6,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": 0.5
     },
     {
      "week_start": "2026-10-12",
      "distinct_signals_posted": 3,
      "market_n": 3,
      "stats": {
       "n": 3,
       "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
       "tp1_ci": [
        0.0,
        0.5615
       ],
       "sl_first_rate": 1.0,
       "sl_first_ci": [
        0.4385,
        1.0
       ],
       "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_rate": 0.0,
       "tp2plus_n": 0,
       "tp2plus_denominator": 3,
       "tp2plus_ci": [
        0.0,
        0.5615
       ],
       "mean_r_tp1": -1.0,
       "mean_r_last": -1.0,
       "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.3328,
       "avg_winning_tp1_r": null,
       "breakeven_tp1_rate": null,
       "median_minutes_to_first_event": 103.0,
       "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
      },
      "touch_n": 0,
      "touch_tp1_hit_rate": null
     }
    ],
    "note": "Week starts Monday (UTC); the last week may be partial. Weekly cells are small: read the range, not the point estimate."
   }
  ],
  "touch_variant": {
   "n": 28,
   "note": "Fill-on-touch signals: limit or stop style entries away from the market at post time, filled when price traded into the zone within 4 hours. Reported separately, never pooled with the market-fill variant.",
   "pooled": {
    "n": 28,
    "tp1_hit_rate": 0.3214,
    "tp1_ci": [
     0.1793,
     0.5066
    ],
    "sl_first_rate": 0.6429,
    "sl_first_ci": [
     0.4583,
     0.7929
    ],
    "unresolved_rate": 0.0357,
    "tp2plus_rate": 0.2174,
    "tp2plus_n": 5,
    "tp2plus_denominator": 23,
    "tp2plus_ci": [
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     0.419
    ],
    "mean_r_tp1": -0.4878,
    "mean_r_last": -0.6212,
    "avg_tp1_distance_r": 1.0326,
    "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.4086,
    "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.7099,
    "median_minutes_to_first_event": 47.5,
    "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
   },
   "by_instrument": [
    {
     "instrument": "XAUUSD",
     "n": 26,
     "tp1_hit_rate": 0.3462,
     "tp1_ci": [
      0.1941,
      0.5378
     ],
     "sl_first_rate": 0.6538,
     "sl_first_ci": [
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      0.8059
     ],
     "unresolved_rate": 0.0,
     "tp2plus_rate": 0.2174,
     "tp2plus_n": 5,
     "tp2plus_denominator": 23,
     "tp2plus_ci": [
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     ],
     "mean_r_tp1": -0.5124,
     "mean_r_last": -0.656,
     "avg_tp1_distance_r": 0.7464,
     "avg_winning_tp1_r": 0.4086,
     "breakeven_tp1_rate": 0.7099,
     "median_minutes_to_first_event": 45.1,
     "ambiguous_same_bar": 0
    },
    {
     "instrument": "BTCUSD",
     "n": 1,
     "tp1_hit_rate": 0.0,
     "tp1_ci": [
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   "rows": [
    {
     "mode": "auto (time-varying, headline)",
     "gold_market": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.62,
      "mean_r_tp1": 0.02,
      "mean_r_last": -0.01
     },
     "gold_touch": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.35,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.51,
      "mean_r_last": -0.66
     },
     "all_market": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.58,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.02
     },
     "skipped_typo": 14
    },
    {
     "mode": "const offset",
     "gold_market": {
      "n": 55,
      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.49,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.17,
      "mean_r_last": -0.13
     },
     "gold_touch": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.64,
      "mean_r_tp1": 0.18,
      "mean_r_last": -0.6
     },
     "all_market": {
      "n": 76,
      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.47,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.18
     },
     "skipped_typo": 14
    },
    {
     "mode": "auto shifted down 0.07% of price (about 3 dollars on gold)",
     "gold_market": {
      "n": 87,
      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.49,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.19,
      "mean_r_last": -0.41
     },
     "gold_touch": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.65,
      "mean_r_tp1": 0.11,
      "mean_r_last": -0.18
     },
     "all_market": {
      "n": 102,
      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.5,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.17
     },
     "skipped_typo": 14
    },
    {
     "mode": "auto shifted up 0.07% of price",
     "gold_market": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.52,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.16,
      "mean_r_last": -0.07
     },
     "gold_touch": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.42,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.24,
      "mean_r_last": -0.14
     },
     "all_market": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.52,
      "mean_r_tp1": -0.14
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     "skipped_typo": 14
    },
    {
     "mode": "none (raw futures)",
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 1.0,
      "mean_r_tp1": 5.43,
      "mean_r_last": 6.86
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     "gold_touch": {
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     "all_market": {
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      "tp1_hit_rate": 0.63,
      "mean_r_tp1": 0.25
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     "skipped_typo": 14
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   "range": {
    "scope": "gold, market-fill variant, across the basis assumptions in the table (excluding the no-basis row)",
    "tp1_hit_rate": [
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     0.62
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    "mean_r_tp1": [
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    "mean_r_tp1_same_sign": false
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   "note": "Each row rescored the same posts with a different assumption about the futures-to-spot basis. 'None' uses raw futures prices and is shown for completeness."
  },
  "assumptions": [
   "Pips: gold 1 pip = 0.10, indices 1 point, FX 0.0001 (JPY pairs 0.01). Pip-denominated targets are measured from the fill price and flagged; if a channel meant a different pip size, those targets are scored too near or too far.",
   "Tape: Yahoo public 5-minute bars. XAUUSD spot is not available there, so gold uses COMEX futures (GC=F). The futures-to-spot basis (about 30 dollars on gold) is estimated from the channel's own stated entries (a time-varying fit of stated entry minus tape at post time) and added back. The basis estimate is the largest uncertainty: it is the same size as a typical 10 dollar stop. The sensitivity table below rescored every signal with other basis assumptions.",
   "Fill rule: the market variant fills at the close of the 5-minute bar containing the post when the market is inside the stated entry zone (widened by a 0.25 R tolerance). When the market is away from the entry, the touch variant waits up to 4 hours for the entry zone to trade. The two variants are never pooled.",
   "No spread, slippage or commission, and no break-even or trailing management. Every R figure is therefore optimistic on costs; exiting everything at the last target is a harsh all-or-nothing reading, exiting at TP1 the generous one.",
   "Same-bar tie: if the stop and a target both trade inside one 5-minute bar, the stop is counted first. Targets are sorted by distance from the fill, so TP1 is always the nearest.",
   "Horizon: 24 hours after the fill. Signals whose window runs past the last available bar are not scored. 'TP1 first' means TP1 traded before the stop inside the horizon; 'SL first' means the stop traded before TP1.",
   "Reposts within 60 minutes with identical levels are collapsed to the first copy. Posts sharing one exact timestamp with 5 or more others in the same channel (bulk history dumps) are not scored because their original post time is unknown.",
   "Posts with no stop or no target, obvious price typos (levels far from the market), and signals older than Yahoo's roughly 60-day 5-minute history are reported in the funnel but not scored."
  ],
  "assumptions_report": [
   "Fill model: the market variant fills at the close of the 5m bar containing the post, which can be up to 5 minutes after the post. Real fills on a CFD broker carry spread (gold typically 2 to 3 dollars against stops of about 10) and slippage; both ignored here, so every R figure is optimistic.",
   "Tolerance: a stated entry or zone counts as at-market when the market is inside it widened by 0.25 x |entry mid - SL|. Wider tolerance moves signals from the touch variant to the market variant.",
   "Pips: gold 1 pip = 0.10, indices 1 point, FX 0.0001 (JPY 0.01). Pip-denominated TPs (for example `TP: 50/100PIPS`) are measured from the fill price; signals using them carry `tp_pips_assumed`. If the channel meant 1 pip = 1.00 on gold, those targets are 10x farther than scored.",
   "Same-bar ambiguity: SL wins over TP inside one 5m bar. TP1 and TP2 in the same bar are both credited. On the fill bar of a touch-variant signal only the SL is credited.",
   "TP order: targets are sorted by distance from the fill, so `tp1` is the nearest even if the channel listed it differently. Targets already passed or on the wrong side at fill are dropped and flagged `tp_wrong_side_or_passed`. TPs written `open` are ignored.",
   "No management: no break-even move, no partial closes, no trailing. Channels often tell followers to move to break-even after TP1; that rule is not modelled, so the exit@last TP column is a harsh all-or-nothing reading and the exit@TP1 column is the generous one.",
   "Futures proxies (GC=F, YM=F, NQ=F) stand in for spot CFDs because Yahoo has no XAUUSD=X data; the estimated basis is applied in `auto` mode; 4c shows const, shifted and no-basis results. A basis error of a few dollars is comparable to the 10-dollar stops, which is the main uncertainty in this report.",
   "The archive holds posts, not edits or deletions. A signal the channel later deleted or amended is scored as posted. Reposts within 60 minutes are collapsed to the first copy; a changed level creates a new signal.",
   "Horizon: trades whose 24h window runs past the last Yahoo bar are excluded (`horizon_incomplete`), not scored as open.",
   "Posts with no stated entry and no numbers (\"GOLD SELL NOW\" alone) have no SL or TP and are not scored. Claims text is not matched to signals yet.",
   "Sample sizes are small (tens of signals per instrument, one month, one dominant channel). Confidence intervals are Wilson 95% on the TP1 hit rate only; treat everything else as descriptive."
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