{"generated_at":"2026-10-21T01:08:14Z","credit":"https://telegramscammers.com","disclaimer":"Analysis of public posts. The channels and accounts are flagged for investigation, not a finding of fraud. Flag list curated by https://telegramscammers.com. Statistical description under stated assumptions, not advice.","methodology":{"windows":{"intraday":"Calls posted during the regular session (9:30 to 16:00 ET): the 30 minutes of 5-minute bars after the call.","daily":"Daily callouts (posted before the open, after the close, or on a weekend): the whole next regular session."},"fill_rule":"The fill is the open of the first 5-minute bar at or after the post (or the session open for daily callouts). If no trade printed within 15 minutes of the post (or the open) the call is unscorable as illiquid, not scored.","rules":{"list":"+50% / -50%; +100% / -50%; +30% / -30%","definition":"A rule is take-profit / stop-loss measured from the fill. TP first means the take-profit level traded before the stop; SL first means the stop traded first; neither means neither level traded inside the window and the position is valued at the last bar's close. A bar that touches both levels counts as the stop. The headline rule is +50% / -50%."},"ended_green_definition":"Ended green means the last bar's close in the window was above the fill price. It is not a trading win rate.","assumptions":["Every called-out contract is judged by its own traded price after the post, not by the underlying and not at expiry.","Intraday calls get 30 minutes because these channels post quick scalps; daily callouts get the whole next regular session.","Fill is the open of the first 5-minute trade bar at or after the post, so it is a trade print, not a quote you could have hit.","Peak is the highest traded price in the window relative to the fill; drawdown is the lowest, relative to the fill.","Repost de-duplication: an echo of the same trade within a channel, or recognised by the parser as a cross-channel copy, is collapsed before scoring. Copies posted in the same minute that the parser did not recognise remain in the sample (counts in the robustness block).","A post is scored once per contract. The channel's own quoted entry is shown only to test whether it could have been filled.","Only public channels are scored. Parsing is automatic and can be wrong."],"limitations":["Bars are trade prints, not bid and ask. Spread and slippage are NOT modelled, so true results for someone trading these calls would be worse, most of all on wide-spread, low-priced contracts.","Option bars come from an indicative data feed; some venues or prints may be missing and a bar's open may differ from what was available at the second of the post. A one-off comparison against archived Yahoo daily bars (311 contract-days) found closes matched in 95%, lows in 78% and highs in only 55%, with the feed's high above Yahoo's in 110 cases (33 by more than 10%). Peaks and TP-first are therefore upper-leaning (part of the gap may be partial-day capture in the reference).","The fill is the open of the first 5-minute bar starting at or after the post, so the bar containing the post is skipped: the median gap from post to that bar is about 2.5 minutes (90th percentile about 4.6 minutes, see fill_gap). The 0-minute row is therefore not an instant fill, and every delay row is that much later still.","The quoted-entry comparison is between the channel's quote and the fill price after that gap, not the price at the second of the post.","Statistical ranges (Wilson) treat calls as independent. They are not: calls cluster on a few days, tickers (SPX) and channels, and some copies of the same contract remain. Day-clustered ranges in the robustness block are wider and are the better guide.","The 30-minute window is short by design. It describes what happened right after a call, not what a different exit rule or a longer hold would have done.","A same-bar tie between the take-profit and stop-loss levels counts as the stop, which is conservative; the true order inside a 5-minute bar is unknown.","A quoted entry far below the contract's traded price at the post could not have been filled; those are counted and shown rather than removed.","The sample covers a limited date range and a few busy channels; rates describe this sample and are not settled estimates.","Calls with no bars, thin trading or an illiquid first print are excluded from the scored sample (see the coverage funnel). Contracts that never traded or opened illiquid are plausibly the worst outcomes, so the exclusion probably flatters the result.","Some windows end early (the contract stopped printing) and some rest on 2 or fewer bars; where neither level is hit the position is valued at the last print, which can be stale. Counts are in the robustness block.","Not advice. Flagged for investigation, not a finding of fraud."]},"window_start":"2026-03-26","window_end":"2026-10-20","small_n_threshold":25,"coverage":{"stages":[{"stage":"Option open callouts (repeat posts removed)","n":3658},{"stage":"With a parseable contract (ticker, side, strike, expiry)","n":2967},{"stage":"No bars for the evaluation window (not captured, not listed, or no trades)","n":177},{"stage":"Unscorable (see reasons)","n":11},{"stage":"Coarse day view only (no 5-minute bars; not in the headline)","n":16},{"stage":"Scored from 5-minute bars","n":2763},{"stage":"  of which intraday (30-minute window)","n":2732},{"stage":"  of which daily callout (whole next session)","n":31}],"unscorable_by_reason":[{"reason":"illiquid: first print more than 15 minutes after the post or the open","n":11}],"no_bars_by_category":{"unknown":146,"intraday":30,"daily":1},"status_counts":{"scored":2763,"unscorable":11,"no_bars":177,"day_view":16},"no_bars_unknown_note":"'unknown' = the contract was not captured at all (older than the data retains, or not listed), so the call was never placed in the intraday or daily window."},"pooled":{"intraday":{"n":2732,"ended_green":{"k":995,"n":2732,"rate":0.3642,"ci":[0.3464,0.3824]},"peak_pct":{"median":17.9,"mean":37.3},"drawdown_pct":{"median":-22.5,"mean":-28.5},"end_return_pct":{"median":-6.2,"mean":-1.2},"rules":[{"rule":"tp50_sl50","take_profit_pct":50,"stop_loss_pct":50,"n":2732,"tp_first":549,"sl_first":515,"neither":1668,"tp_first_rate":0.201,"tp_first_ci":[0.1864,0.2164],"sl_first_rate":0.1885,"sl_first_ci":[0.1743,0.2036],"neither_rate":0.6105,"mean_return_pct":-3.0},{"rule":"tp100_sl50","take_profit_pct":100,"stop_loss_pct":50,"n":2732,"tp_first":224,"sl_first":552,"neither":1956,"tp_first_rate":0.082,"tp_first_ci":[0.0723,0.0929],"sl_first_rate":0.202,"sl_first_ci":[0.1874,0.2175],"neither_rate":0.716,"mean_return_pct":-2.4},{"rule":"tp30_sl30","take_profit_pct":30,"stop_loss_pct":30,"n":2732,"tp_first":778,"sl_first":914,"neither":1040,"tp_first_rate":0.2848,"tp_first_ci":[0.2682,0.302],"sl_first_rate":0.3346,"sl_first_ci":[0.3171,0.3525],"neither_rate":0.3807,"mean_return_pct":-2.5}],"headline_rule":{"rule":"tp50_sl50","tp_first":549,"sl_first":515,"neither":1668,"tp_first_rate":0.201,"sl_first_rate":0.1885,"tp_first_ci":[0.1864,0.2164],"sl_first_ci":[0.1743,0.2036],"mean_return_pct":-3.0},"liquidity":{"n":2732,"median_window_volume":2397.0,"thin_under_20_contracts":{"k":98,"n":2732,"rate":0.0359,"ci":[0.0295,0.0435]}},"quoted_entry_realism":{"n":2432,"median_quoted_vs_fill_pct":-2.0,"within_25pct":{"k":1695,"n":2432,"rate":0.697,"ci":[0.6784,0.7149]},"unfillable_quote_more_than_25pct_below_fill":{"k":377,"n":2432,"rate":0.155,"ci":[0.1412,0.1699]},"quoted_more_than_25pct_above_fill":{"k":360,"n":2432,"rate":0.148,"ci":[0.1345,0.1627]}}},"daily":{"n":31,"ended_green":{"k":14,"n":31,"rate":0.4516,"ci":[0.2916,0.6223]},"peak_pct":{"median":41.8,"mean":134.7},"drawdown_pct":{"median":-30.4,"mean":-41.2},"end_return_pct":{"median":-16.6,"mean":43.6},"rules":[{"rule":"tp50_sl50","take_profit_pct":50,"stop_loss_pct":50,"n":31,"tp_first":14,"sl_first":10,"neither":7,"tp_first_rate":0.4516,"tp_first_ci":[0.2916,0.6223],"sl_first_rate":0.3226,"sl_first_ci":[0.1857,0.4986],"neither_rate":0.2258,"mean_return_pct":4.8},{"rule":"tp100_sl50","take_profit_pct":100,"stop_loss_pct":50,"n":31,"tp_first":10,"sl_first":10,"neither":11,"tp_first_rate":0.3226,"tp_first_ci":[0.1857,0.4986],"sl_first_rate":0.3226,"sl_first_ci":[0.1857,0.4986],"neither_rate":0.3548,"mean_return_pct":19.2},{"rule":"tp30_sl30","take_profit_pct":30,"stop_loss_pct":30,"n":31,"tp_first":16,"sl_first":13,"neither":2,"tp_first_rate":0.5161,"tp_first_ci":[0.3484,0.6803],"sl_first_rate":0.4194,"sl_first_ci":[0.2642,0.5923],"neither_rate":0.0645,"mean_return_pct":2.9}],"headline_rule":{"rule":"tp50_sl50","tp_first":14,"sl_first":10,"neither":7,"tp_first_rate":0.4516,"sl_first_rate":0.3226,"tp_first_ci":[0.2916,0.6223],"sl_first_ci":[0.1857,0.4986],"mean_return_pct":4.8},"liquidity":{"n":31,"median_window_volume":1461,"thin_under_20_contracts":{"k":0,"n":31,"rate":0.0,"ci":[0.0,0.1103]}},"quoted_entry_realism":{"n":22,"median_quoted_vs_fill_pct":-10.3,"within_25pct":{"k":5,"n":22,"rate":0.2273,"ci":[0.1012,0.4344]},"unfillable_quote_more_than_25pct_below_fill":{"k":9,"n":22,"rate":0.4091,"ci":[0.2326,0.6127]},"quoted_more_than_25pct_above_fill":{"k":8,"n":22,"rate":0.3636,"ci":[0.1973,0.5705]}}}},"delay_sensitivity":{"rows":[{"delay_bars":0,"delay_minutes":0,"n":2597,"green_rate":0.3647,"green_ci":[0.3464,0.3834],"mean_end_return_pct":-1.2,"tp_first_rate":0.2075,"sl_first_rate":0.196,"rule_mean_return_pct":-3.2,"shortened_window":{"n":2597,"tp_first_rate":0.2075,"sl_first_rate":0.196,"rule_mean_return_pct":-3.2}},{"delay_bars":1,"delay_minutes":5,"n":2597,"green_rate":0.3797,"green_ci":[0.3612,0.3985],"mean_end_return_pct":-0.1,"tp_first_rate":0.2114,"sl_first_rate":0.1787,"rule_mean_return_pct":-1.6,"shortened_window":{"n":2597,"tp_first_rate":0.1929,"sl_first_rate":0.1575,"rule_mean_return_pct":-1.4}},{"delay_bars":2,"delay_minutes":10,"n":2597,"green_rate":0.3893,"green_ci":[0.3707,0.4082],"mean_end_return_pct":-0.4,"tp_first_rate":0.2002,"sl_first_rate":0.1683,"rule_mean_return_pct":-1.3,"shortened_window":{"n":2597,"tp_first_rate":0.161,"sl_first_rate":0.1182,"rule_mean_return_pct":-1.3}},{"delay_bars":3,"delay_minutes":15,"n":2597,"green_rate":0.3889,"green_ci":[0.3703,0.4078],"mean_end_return_pct":-0.2,"tp_first_rate":0.2002,"sl_first_rate":0.1629,"rule_mean_return_pct":-1.1,"shortened_window":{"n":2597,"tp_first_rate":0.1398,"sl_first_rate":0.082,"rule_mean_return_pct":-0.6}}],"note":"Re-scored from the local bar archive with the fill moved N five-minute bars after the first bar at or after the post (intraday calls only). Only calls that have bars at every delay are used (same n in every row), and each delayed fill gets its own full 30-minute window (capped at the session close).","rule":"tp50_sl50","reused_from_previous":false,"n_pooled_headline":2732,"n_dropped_for_like_for_like":135,"like_for_like":true},"fill_gap":{"n":2732,"median_s":153,"p90_s":275,"over_300s":{"k":49,"n":2732,"rate":0.0179,"ci":[0.0136,0.0236]},"over_600s":{"k":14,"n":2732,"rate":0.0051,"ci":[0.0031,0.0086]}},"robustness":{"n":2732,"distinct_days":112,"max_calls_in_one_day":55,"top_ticker":{"ticker":"SPX","n":448},"extra_rows_same_contract_same_day":416,"extra_rows_same_contract_same_minute":69,"cluster_by_day_95_range":{"ended_green":[0.3422,0.3865],"tp_first":[0.1826,0.2186],"sl_first":[0.1697,0.2083],"rule_mean_return_pct":[-4.4467,-1.6686]},"without_same_minute_duplicates":{"n":2663,"ended_green":{"k":974,"n":2663,"rate":0.3658,"ci":[0.3477,0.3842]},"tp_first_rate":0.2028,"sl_first_rate":0.1889,"rule_mean_return_pct":-3.0},"selection":{"scored_rows":2763,"truncated_window_rows":108,"two_or_fewer_bars":67,"neither_level_hit_valued_at_last_print":1668},"vendor_crosscheck":{"contract_days_compared":311,"close_within_1_cent":296,"low_agrees":243,"high_agrees":170,"vendor_high_above_reference":110,"vendor_high_above_by_more_than_10pct":33,"vendor_high_below_reference":31,"note":"One-off manual comparison of the Alpaca 5-minute bars (day high/low/close) with archived Yahoo daily bars. Extra prints in the Alpaca feed raise peaks and TP-first; part of the gap may be partial-day capture of the Yahoo archive. 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